Estimating the Size of the Commercial Real Estate Market in The U.S.
Estimating the Size of the Commercial Real Estate Market in the U.S.
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The approximated overall dollar worth of commercial real estate was $20.7 trillion since 2021: Q2.
Highlights
This research study note summarizes a study by Nareit primarily utilizing information from CoStar that estimates the overall dollar value of commercial property was $20.7 trillion as of 2021: Q2. This research study updates and builds on the methodology for Nareit's previous price quotes of the business real estate market.
Table 1 summarizes the quotes by residential or commercial property sector. The overall price quote is $20.7 trillion. Measurement problems with the underlying information suggest that the real value of total CRE might vary from this point quote. An examination of these sources of unpredictability suggests that the real value is extremely likely to fall within a series of $18 - $22 trillion. These estimates are based on a bottom-up technique using the very best available data for each residential or commercial property sector.
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We likewise estimate overall REIT holdings of business real estate using information from Capital IQ Pro. For the 2nd quarter of 2021, REITs make up an approximated 9.4% of the overall CRE market. REITs tend to focus on institutional-quality residential or commercial properties that are newer and of higher quality than many other business residential or commercial properties that are owned by personal investors. We estimate the overall worth of these "REIT-like" residential or commercial properties to be approximately 50% of the total CRE market and that the REIT share of "REIT-like" residential or commercial properties is 18.7% for the 2nd quarter of 2021.
Chart 1 shows a time series of the REIT share of the total CRE market and the REIT share of the REIT-like CRE market.
Methodology
To approximate the size of the business realty market, we use a multi-step approach based on the finest available information for each residential or commercial property sector.
- We start by identifying and estimating the variety of units (for multifamily) and overall square video footage (for other residential or commercial property sectors) by residential or commercial property sector and residential or commercial property quality type for the largest 200 markets in the U.S. This process utilized CoStar's information export function covering the Office, Retail, Multifamily, and Industrial residential or commercial property sectors that supplied overall square footage and systems in addition to the typical rate per square foot (for office, retail, and industrial) or per system (for multifamily).
- The details on square video and typical price by residential or commercial property type (for retail: General Retail, Mall, Neighborhood Center, and Strip Center; for commercial: Flex, Logistics, and Specialized), CoStar quality rating (1-2 Star, 3 Star, 4-5 Star), and groups of city areas (gateway cities, next biggest 48 city areas, and all other city locations) enable for further analysis of the geographical circulation of industrial genuine estate across the nation and quotes of institutional-grade business property versus all other. These quotes in turn are beneficial for determining the REIT share of business realty by residential or commercial property sector.
- To estimate values for the Healthcare and Hospitality sectors where we do not have disaggregated overalls available from CoStar, we utilize the values from an aggregate analysis of commercial realty market size carried out by CoStar, updated using aggregate development rate presumptions.
- To estimate the value of Data Centers and Towers, we approximate the total value of REITs in these residential or commercial property sectors and earn approximately cover the entire market utilizing presumptions on the REIT portion of these sectors (50% for Data Centers and 75% for Towers). Recent Nareit-sponsored research on cell tower REITs highlights their importance in the CRE market. The calculated worth for Data Centers is subtracted from the Industrial total, as it is consisted of in the CoStar quote of overall square video of Industrial residential or commercial properties.
- We estimate the REIT share of the market by utilizing information from S&P Capital IQ Pro on the Real Estate Value of REITs. We accumulate the overall Property Value for the most current quarter and divide by the overall value of the CRE market.
- To establish a time series for REIT share, we utilize observed data on the total size of the CRE market because 2012. For several years before 2012, we assume an 8% development in total value for each year going back to 1995. For the years 2007 - 2011, we follow various conventions to account for the results of the Great Financial Crisis. In 2007, we approximate that the total CRE worth declined the same percent as REITs. This percent decrease is the same for both parts in 2008. In 2009 - 2011, both the total market and the REIT worths increase to 1/4, 1/2, and 3/4 of the way to the 2012 value, respectively.
- In addition to approximating the REIT share of the overall market, we likewise approximate the REIT share of 'REIT-like residential or commercial properties.' REITs do not own numerous older, lower quality, or smaller residential or commercial properties that are owned by personal investors. Therefore, we approximate that half of the overall market is "REIT-like" residential or commercial properties and we divided the REIT worth by that number to estimate the REIT share of "REIT-like" residential or commercial properties.